I recently read a blog by another respected greyhound player and writer that said speed basically didn't matter. I'd like to take a couple of minutes and dispute this basic premise.
Not too many years ago it was very difficult to know the exact statistic of any single factor over a large number of races. But thanks to sophisticated database centered software it isn't difficult at all anymore. I use quickdog software because it is simply the best available. In fact my members only website uses it exclusively to teach players how to win and become profitable players. In my teaching, one of the primary factors is speed.
So how does this other writer I mentioned earlier have his proposition hold up under statistical scrutiny? Not very well as I will now show you.
I ran a test of 500 races at a single track using my method of determining speed. I feel I have the best method for speed and everyone has their own ideas. However using my criteria for speed, here are the results.
One of the top 3 fastest ranked dogs won the race 49.9 percent of the time. That means 3/8 of the field ranked on speed wins half the races. 5/8 of the time it is the bottom ranked speed dogs that win.
So while the author I mentioned earlier was right that the top ranked speed dog won't win an overwhelming percentage of the time, one of the top tier dogs will. So I maintain that speed, more than anything else, is your best starting point for picking winners!
By the way, of you look at the top 4 ranked speed dogs (or the top half of the field) then the winning percentage jumps to 64%. Thats an overwhelming majority of races and further proves my point.
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Winning greyhound track tips for everyone
I can't say too much about track bias. I personally played two races at Palm Beach today, but I watched almost every race. The 1 box won 40% of the races on the card.
Palm Beach has a 1 box bias every day. Some days it appears even greater than others. The question is how do you exploit this for profit? The answer isn't simple but it is definitely something you can do. The first thing to do is PAY ATTENTION!
How many times do you handicap a card and play it all day without ever once considering what is happening at the track? You should be paying attention to everything! Always. Here are some things to help you look for things like track bias.
1. Did you notice that the same box has now won 3 races and your only 4 or 5 races in? Well maybe you should do some work and check it out.
2. Was the 1 dog that won these races the best dog? If so then you probably don't have a big track bias.
3. Did the 1 win because obvious trouble dogs were running outside of the 1 and he benefitted 2 or 3 of those races? If so then you probably don't have track bias.
3. Was the 1 dog in at least two of these races a marginal dog with at least 1 much better dog? Did he win with no horrible collisions outside responsible. In other words did the race run relatively cleanly and yet the 1 dog won when he shouldn't?
In the last case you have possible heavy track bias!
What you would do the rest of the card is look for dogs in the 1 box that aren't teh worst dog in the race, but rather rank in the top 4 without a lot of talent separation between the top 4.
You would also want to try to get odds. This is a value play after all and based on http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifsome speculation and intuition. So looking to get 3/1 or 4/1 or better would be preferable. You certainly wouldn't want to play the dog at 8/5 or 3/2 etc.
Exploiting track bias can get you some nice winners while the 'crowd' is still playing their handicapping they did the night before..oblivious to track conditions.
Win and play like a pro. Learn from a pro. Change you perspective. Become a winning player!
www.greyhoundtracktips.com
Palm Beach has a 1 box bias every day. Some days it appears even greater than others. The question is how do you exploit this for profit? The answer isn't simple but it is definitely something you can do. The first thing to do is PAY ATTENTION!
How many times do you handicap a card and play it all day without ever once considering what is happening at the track? You should be paying attention to everything! Always. Here are some things to help you look for things like track bias.
1. Did you notice that the same box has now won 3 races and your only 4 or 5 races in? Well maybe you should do some work and check it out.
2. Was the 1 dog that won these races the best dog? If so then you probably don't have a big track bias.
3. Did the 1 win because obvious trouble dogs were running outside of the 1 and he benefitted 2 or 3 of those races? If so then you probably don't have track bias.
3. Was the 1 dog in at least two of these races a marginal dog with at least 1 much better dog? Did he win with no horrible collisions outside responsible. In other words did the race run relatively cleanly and yet the 1 dog won when he shouldn't?
In the last case you have possible heavy track bias!
What you would do the rest of the card is look for dogs in the 1 box that aren't teh worst dog in the race, but rather rank in the top 4 without a lot of talent separation between the top 4.
You would also want to try to get odds. This is a value play after all and based on http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifsome speculation and intuition. So looking to get 3/1 or 4/1 or better would be preferable. You certainly wouldn't want to play the dog at 8/5 or 3/2 etc.
Exploiting track bias can get you some nice winners while the 'crowd' is still playing their handicapping they did the night before..oblivious to track conditions.
Win and play like a pro. Learn from a pro. Change you perspective. Become a winning player!
www.greyhoundtracktips.com
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